When President Donald Trump took office, he made a bold promise to usher in an era of “American energy dominance.” Backed by sweeping deregulation, expanded drilling permits, and an aggressive stance toward fossil fuel exports, the administration positioned the oil and gas industry at the center of its economic revival plan.
But several years later, Trump’s parallel pursuit of an unpredictable trade war has thrown that vision into disarray.
Major energy companies — once staunch allies of the administration — have grown increasingly wary. The president’s escalating tariffs on Chinese goods and retaliatory measures from Beijing sent ripples through global oil markets, delaying deals, stalling infrastructure investments, and undercutting demand forecasts.
Tariffs Bite into Energy Markets
China, once a leading importer of U.S. crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG), slashed its intake during the height of the trade conflict. In 2018, Beijing slapped tariffs on American oil imports in retaliation for U.S. levies on Chinese goods. The result: a sharp decline in U.S. oil exports to Asia and diminished investor confidence in a volatile geopolitical climate.
“These trade tensions are more than headlines — they’re hampering strategic planning across the energy sector,” said one Houston-based oil executive, who asked not to be named. “You can’t build a pipeline or expand exports when you don’t know who your customers will be next quarter.”
A Boom Tempered by Uncertainty
While U.S. oil production did reach record highs during Trump’s presidency, the gains were increasingly tempered by market instability. Fluctuating crude prices, uncertainty around international demand, and regulatory whiplash created an atmosphere that even favorable domestic policy couldn’t fully offset.
The administration’s rollback of environmental protections and embrace of fossil fuels was supposed to be a golden ticket for producers. But without steady global demand — particularly from major players like China — that strategy faltered.
Investors Grow Restless
The result was a growing sense of frustration from industry stakeholders who once applauded Trump’s pro-oil stance. Energy companies found themselves caught between regulatory wins at home and volatile trade policies abroad.
“Energy dominance doesn’t exist in a vacuum,” said energy economist Carla Montes of the Center for Strategic Futures. “You need stable markets, clear policy direction, and reliable trading partners. The trade war undermined all three.”
A Turning Point for Policy and Planning
The experience left many in the oil sector rethinking their long-term strategies — not only in terms of exports, but also in diversifying portfolios and preparing for a future where geopolitics may override traditional economic logic.
It also sparked a wider conversation about the limits of energy independence and the need for sustainable, resilient energy planning — one less susceptible to political whims and trade turbulence.
As the dust from Trump’s trade battles settles, the oil industry faces a hard truth: short-term gains from deregulation can be swiftly undone by international instability. And while “energy dominance” remains a catchy slogan, the path forward may require more cooperation, less confrontation — and perhaps, a broader vision of sustainability.